Market Brief — Friday, March 13, 2026
CAUTIOUSMarket PulseFear index: elevated
Markets bounced Friday after a brutal week dominated by the Iran conflict. Oil pulled back from $100 after days of wild swings, giving stocks room to breathe. The S&P 500 gained 0.5% and the Dow added 300 points, but don't mistake relief for recovery. GDP was revised sharply lower, the Fed is stuck on hold, and gas prices keep climbing. The bounce feels fragile.
Risk RadarELEVATED
Iran war disrupting 20% of global oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz
GDP growth revised down to 0.7%, weakest since early 2022
Core PCE inflation stuck at 3.0%, above Fed's 2% target
Rate cut expectations pushed to December at earliest
New trade investigations could trigger fresh tariff escalation
If you read nothing else
Oil pulled back and stocks bounced, but the Iran war, weak GDP, and sticky inflation mean this relief rally has a short shelf life.