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The economy grew 0.7% last quarter while oil sits above $100 and gas prices keep climbing. The Fed meets next week and can't cut rates because inflation won't cooperate. Nothing is crashing all at once , it's just getting worse slowly. Don't panic sell. Don't try to time the bottom. If you're in index funds, stay there. If you're holding cash, that's fine too.

Oil pulled back and stocks bounced, but the Iran war, weak GDP, and sticky inflation mean this relief rally has a short shelf life.

Oil is the story right now, and it's hitting your wallet directly. Gas prices are up almost 60 cents in a month and climbing. The Fed can't cut rates if inflation comes roaring back from energy costs, which means your mortgage rate stays high and your savings account rate stays put. The market is nervous but not panicking — the S&P is down about 1% today, not 5%. If you're in index funds, this is a hold-tight moment, not a sell-everything moment. The biggest risk isn't the oil spike itself — it's if it lasts long enough to change how companies set prices for everything else.

Inflation data was fine — but it doesn't matter because oil at $90 is about to make everything more expensive again. The Fed meets next week and they're in a tough spot: the economy needs help, but cutting rates while oil is spiking would be like pouring gas on a fire. Sit tight this week.

The Iran war is repricing everything. Oil near $120 means higher costs for consumers, fatter margins for energy companies, and a Fed that's stuck — they can't cut rates into an oil-driven inflation spike, but the economy is already showing cracks. This is a week to protect capital, not chase dips.

The Iran-Strait of Hormuz crisis is the only story that matters right now. Oil's 35% weekly spike is a tax on every consumer and company, and until there's clarity on shipping lanes reopening, expect volatility to stay elevated across all asset classes.